Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-05-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 0 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

CGY: 60.3%

DAL: 39.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.85

DAL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

CGY

J. Markstrom

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	16	16	0	100.0%	1.36	0	1.36
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	25	1	96.2%	1.72	0	0.72

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CGY	16	0.49
1	DAL	5	0.42
2	CGY	14	0.80
2	DAL	12	0.45
3	CGY	9	0.43
3	DAL	12	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 0 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.9 - 3.0