Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-05-07 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 57.7%

CGY: 42.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.23

CGY: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	41	39	2	95.1%	4.44	2	2.44
CGY	J. Markstrom	32	28	4	87.5%	4.57	4	0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs CGY: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	1.05
1	CGY	22	1	1.77
2	DAL	16	0	1.37
2	CGY	22	1	1.55
3	DAL	9	3	2.15
3	CGY	16	0	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0