Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-05-09 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 59.5%

CGY: 40.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.08

CGY: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	54	50	4	92.6%	5.58	3	1.58
CGY	J. Markstrom	35	34	1	97.1%	3.52	1	2.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs CGY: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	0	0.83
1	CGY	24	0	1.11
2	DAL	18	0	1.23
2	CGY	31	1	2.01
3	DAL	18	1	1.46
3	CGY	21	2	2.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1