Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-05-13 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 59.4%

CGY: 40.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.92

CGY: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	38	36	2	94.7%	2.68	2	0.68
CGY	J. Markstrom	40	36	4	90.0%	4.49	3	0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs CGY: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	0	0.47
1	CGY	25	2	1.71
2	DAL	22	1	1.87
2	CGY	12	0	0.63
3	DAL	18	2	2.15
3	CGY	14	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 2.6