Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-05-15 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Dallas Stars (OT)

Win Probability

CGY: 66.7%

DAL: 33.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.95

DAL: 1.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	26	2	92.9%	2.96	2	0.96
DAL	Jake Oettinger	67	64	3	95.5%	5.15	0	2.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	28	0	1.28
1	DAL	13	1	0.88
2	CGY	36	0	1.91
2	DAL	8	0	0.45
3	CGY	18	0	0.64
3	DAL	14	1	1.03
4	CGY	20	0	1.31
4	DAL	11	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 4.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 1.9