Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-05-17 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 63.8%

TBL: 36.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.68

TBL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 55%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	36	32	4	88.9%	4.52	5	0.52
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	33	1	97.1%	3.60	2	2.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • FLA at home vs TBL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	14	1	1.25
1	TBL	8	0	0.41
2	FLA	20	0	1.09
2	TBL	11	0	0.73
3	FLA	17	1	1.26
3	TBL	22	5	3.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0