Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-05-19 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 65.7%

TBL: 34.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.86

TBL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	28	26	2	92.9%	2.58	0	0.58
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	36	35	1	97.2%	3.42	1	2.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • FLA at home vs TBL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	13	0	0.84
1	TBL	10	0	0.76
2	FLA	22	0	1.20
2	TBL	15	0	1.15
3	FLA	16	1	1.39
3	TBL	14	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.9 - 3.1