St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-05-25 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 57.2%

STL: 42.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.51

STL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

D. Kuemper

STL

V. Husso

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	30	25	5	83.3%	2.18	1	-2.82
STL	V. Husso	34	30	4	88.2%	2.69	0	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • COL at home vs STL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	0	1.42
1	STL	11	0	0.52
2	COL	10	0	0.59
2	STL	11	0	0.61
3	COL	9	0	0.47
3	STL	12	1	0.99
4	COL	5	0	0.21
4	STL	2	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1