Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-05-20 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 60.2%

EDM: 39.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.51

EDM: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 55%

CGY

J. Markstrom

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	40	35	5	87.5%	5.21	2	0.21
EDM	M. Smith	40	37	3	92.5%	3.24	1	0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	1	0.85
1	EDM	22	0	1.74
2	CGY	17	0	1.24
2	EDM	16	0	1.59
3	CGY	24	0	1.14
3	EDM	17	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1