Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-05-24 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 47.6%

CGY: 52.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.23

CGY: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

M. Smith

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	32	29	3	90.6%	3.01	1	0.01
CGY	J. Markstrom	26	21	5	80.8%	3.72	4	-1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • EDM at home vs CGY: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	1	0.99
1	CGY	25	1	1.24
2	EDM	9	0	0.91
2	CGY	15	0	1.03
3	EDM	12	3	1.82
3	CGY	13	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4