Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-05-26 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 5 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 52.2%

EDM: 47.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.54

EDM: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	35	30	5	85.7%	2.64	0	-2.36
EDM	M. Smith	36	32	4	88.9%	3.05	0	-0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CGY	11	0.97
1	EDM	12	0.35
2	CGY	22	1.32
2	EDM	19	1.20
3	CGY	11	0.39
3	EDM	19	1.00
4	CGY	6	0.36
4	EDM	3	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0