Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-06-01 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 42.3%

TBL: 57.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 1.69

TBL: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 45%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	39	37	2	94.9%	4.65	3	2.65
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	28	6	82.4%	3.25	0	-2.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • NYR at home vs TBL: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	0	0.70
1	TBL	15	0	1.26
2	NYR	22	0	1.65
2	TBL	13	1	0.93
3	NYR	12	0	0.89
3	TBL	24	2	2.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 1.7 - 3.5