Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-06-09 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 58.7%

TBL: 41.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.43

TBL: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	24	3	88.9%	4.10	2	1.10
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	96.0%	2.07	1	1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • NYR at home vs TBL: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	1	0.93
1	TBL	9	0	0.66
2	NYR	10	0	0.37
2	TBL	15	1	1.44
3	NYR	12	0	0.77
3	TBL	13	1	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7