Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-05-31 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 8 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

COL: 53.8%

EDM: 46.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.20

EDM: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 55%

COL

D. Kuemper

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	37	31	6	83.8%	3.50	3	-2.50
EDM	M. Smith	47	39	8	83.0%	4.02	1	-3.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • COL at home vs EDM: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	22	0	1.21
1	EDM	12	1	0.86
2	COL	21	0	1.36
2	EDM	22	0	1.21
3	COL	20	1	1.44
3	EDM	17	2	1.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 14.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 8 - 6 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0