Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-06-04 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 50.0%

COL: 50.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.35

COL: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

EDM

M. Smith

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	43	39	4	90.7%	3.85	2	-0.15
COL	P. Francouz	29	27	2	93.1%	3.06	2	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • EDM at home vs COL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	1	1.03
1	COL	16	0	1.34
2	EDM	16	1	1.41
2	COL	19	1	1.09
3	EDM	15	0	0.62
3	COL	16	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0