Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-06-06 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 6 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 53.5%

COL: 46.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.04

COL: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

EDM

M. Smith

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	42	36	6	85.7%	3.62	3	-2.38
COL	P. Francouz	35	30	5	85.7%	3.83	3	-1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • EDM at home vs COL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	2	1.10
1	COL	19	0	0.97
2	EDM	20	1	1.75
2	COL	13	0	0.69
3	EDM	18	0	0.98
3	COL	20	2	1.65
4	EDM	0	0	0.00
4	COL	2	1	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 2.7