Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-06-15 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

COL: 60.3%

TBL: 39.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.00

TBL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

COL

D. Kuemper

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	23	20	3	87.0%	1.62	0	-1.38
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	38	34	4	89.5%	2.78	0	-1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • COL at home vs TBL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	COL	20	1.09
1	TBL	11	0.48
2	COL	15	0.56
2	TBL	12	0.59
3	COL	18	1.08
3	TBL	9	0.49
4	COL	1	0.04
4	TBL	2	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9