Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-06-18 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

COL: 54.5%

TBL: 45.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.06

TBL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

D. Kuemper

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	16	16	0	100.0%	0.99	0	0.99
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	23	7	76.7%	2.40	0	-4.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • COL at home vs TBL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	COL	13	0.93
1	TBL	6	0.29
2	COL	14	0.87
2	TBL	8	0.38
3	COL	13	0.61
3	TBL	6	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2