Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-06-20 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

TBL: 50.1%

COL: 49.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.94

COL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	37	2	94.9%	3.18	0	1.18
COL	D. Kuemper	33	27	6	81.8%	3.80	4	-2.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	3	1.61
1	COL	16	0	0.80
2	TBL	17	0	1.23
2	COL	20	0	1.22
3	TBL	12	1	0.96
3	COL	16	0	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2