Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-06-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 47.9%

COL: 52.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.88

COL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	34	3	91.9%	3.92	0	0.92
COL	D. Kuemper	39	37	2	94.9%	3.14	0	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TBL at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	18	1.42
1	COL	9	0.39
2	TBL	12	1.06
2	COL	24	2.05
3	TBL	13	0.38
3	COL	10	0.34
4	TBL	4	0.28
4	COL	13	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2