Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-06-24 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 60.9%

TBL: 39.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.01

TBL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

D. Kuemper

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	29	26	3	89.7%	1.99	0	-1.01
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	35	2	94.6%	2.45	1	0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • COL at home vs TBL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	0	1.11
1	TBL	16	0	0.73
2	COL	19	1	1.07
2	TBL	13	0	0.63
3	COL	11	0	0.27
3	TBL	16	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 4.0 - 3.1