Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-10-11 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 47.9%

TBL: 52.1%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.76

TBL: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	25	1	96.2%	2.55	0	1.55
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	36	3	92.3%	4.98	5	1.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • NYR at home vs TBL: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	2	1.59
1	TBL	9	0	0.67
2	NYR	19	2	2.15
2	TBL	11	0	0.87
3	NYR	15	1	1.23
3	TBL	14	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 2.7