Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-10-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 47.5%

TOR: 52.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.91

TOR: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

J. Allen

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	32	29	3	90.6%	3.22	2	0.22
TOR	Matt Murray	23	19	4	82.6%	2.23	1	-1.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • MTL at home vs TOR: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	1	0.79
1	TOR	9	1	0.57
2	MTL	13	0	0.83
2	TOR	19	0	1.47
3	MTL	10	0	0.61
3	TOR	12	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9