Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-10-12 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 44.6%

CHI: 55.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 2.69

CHI: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 48%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	17	15	2	88.2%	1.49	1	-0.51
CHI	Petr Mrazek	35	30	5	85.7%	2.36	0	-2.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • COL at home vs CHI: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CHI 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-02-28	COL 3 - 1 CHI	COL	COL
2025-11-23	CHI 0 - 1 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-02	CHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-10	COL 3 - 0 CHI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.67
1	CHI	4	0	0.22
2	COL	15	0	0.96
2	CHI	10	0	0.52
3	COL	16	0	0.73
3	CHI	8	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3