New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-10-13 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 46.9%

NJD: 53.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.43

NJD: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

C. Hart

NJD

M. Blackwood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	37	35	2	94.6%	3.13	0	1.13
NJD	M. Blackwood	25	20	5	80.0%	2.49	2	-2.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs NJD: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.65
1	NJD	16	0	1.21
2	PHI	10	0	0.78
2	NJD	21	0	0.96
3	PHI	12	2	1.05
3	NJD	18	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.4 - 3.1