Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-10-13 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 52.8%

WSH: 47.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.39

WSH: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 37%

TOR

I. Samsonov

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	26	24	2	92.3%	2.67	0	0.67
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	39	36	3	92.3%	4.87	3	1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs WSH: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	25	2	2.33
1	WSH	14	0	0.48
2	TOR	11	0	1.06
2	WSH	17	0	1.38
3	TOR	13	1	1.48
3	WSH	15	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 3.4