Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-10-13 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

CGY: 60.5%

COL: 39.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.71

COL: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 34%

CGY

J. Markstrom

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	22	3	88.0%	3.14	2	0.14
COL	P. Francouz	27	22	5	81.5%	3.09	2	-1.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CGY at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	20	0	1.30
1	COL	5	0	0.47
2	CGY	9	1	0.86
2	COL	17	2	1.43
3	CGY	8	1	0.93
3	COL	17	0	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7