Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-10-15 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PIT: 76.8%

TBL: 23.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.92

TBL: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	36	34	2	94.4%	2.40	0	0.40
TBL	B. Elliott	45	39	6	86.7%	6.27	5	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PIT at home vs TBL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	1.58
1	TBL	12	0	0.64
2	PIT	27	2	2.52
2	TBL	9	0	0.55
3	PIT	17	2	2.16
3	TBL	22	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 76.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 4.9 - 2.7