Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-10-15 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 56.3%

CGY: 43.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.52

CGY: 2.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

EDM

Jack Campbell - 1-4-0 | 0.873 SV% | 4.50 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Jack Campbell	42	38	4	90.5%	4.66	4	0.66
CGY	Dan Vladar	29	26	3	89.7%	3.31	2	0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • EDM at home vs CGY: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	1	0.89
1	CGY	21	1	1.69
2	EDM	14	0	1.20
2	CGY	16	0	1.08
3	EDM	9	1	1.22
3	CGY	23	3	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.5 - 2.1