Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-10-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (81% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 19.1%

PIT: 80.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 1.80

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	28	26	2	92.9%	2.49	0	0.49
PIT	C. DeSmith	39	36	3	92.3%	3.23	0	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs PIT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MTL	15	0.63
1	PIT	8	0.46
2	MTL	17	0.91
2	PIT	18	1.37
3	MTL	14	1.00
3	PIT	11	0.58
4	MTL	5	0.69
4	PIT	1	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 80.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 4.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 1.8 - 3.1