Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2022-10-17 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

MIN: 44.4%

COL: 55.6%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.16

COL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 34%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	38	32	6	84.2%	3.54	1	-2.46
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	39	36	3	92.3%	3.27	1	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	17	0	0.80
1	COL	13	0	0.74
2	MIN	19	0	1.18
2	COL	22	0	1.32
3	MIN	14	1	1.29
3	COL	13	1	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3