Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-10-18 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

EDM: 41.5%

BUF: 58.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.05

BUF: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

BUF

E. Comrie

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	24	20	4	83.3%	3.68	2	-0.32
BUF	E. Comrie	48	46	2	95.8%	5.58	5	3.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	BUF
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	22	1	1.85
1	BUF	12	0	0.78
2	EDM	14	0	0.95
2	BUF	15	1	1.31
3	EDM	30	4	2.78
3	BUF	7	1	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4