Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-10-18 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 48.0%

VGK: 52.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.38

VGK: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 7.1

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

CGY

J. Markstrom

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	21	19	2	90.5%	2.11	0	0.11
VGK	L. Thompson	40	37	3	92.5%	4.67	4	1.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CGY at home vs VGK: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	0.99
1	VGK	15	0	1.01
2	CGY	20	0	1.28
2	VGK	8	0	0.70
3	CGY	16	4	2.40
3	VGK	10	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3