Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-10-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Dallas Stars (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 66.3%

DAL: 33.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.79

DAL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

I. Samsonov

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	28	26	2	92.9%	3.61	2	1.61
DAL	S. Wedgewood	43	40	3	93.0%	4.81	5	1.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TOR at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	8	0	0.68
1	DAL	17	0	0.83
2	TOR	17	2	1.56
2	DAL	12	1	0.89
3	TOR	19	2	1.96
3	DAL	14	1	1.79
4	TOR	4	1	0.62
4	DAL	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9