Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-10-20 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 54.2%

BUF: 45.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 4.12

BUF: 4.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

CGY

J. Markstrom

BUF

E. Comrie

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	32	26	6	81.2%	5.43	3	-0.57
BUF	E. Comrie	43	40	3	93.0%	3.51	2	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	1.38
1	BUF	18	1	1.91
2	CGY	13	1	1.00
2	BUF	23	0	1.78
3	CGY	22	1	1.13
3	BUF	12	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 8.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.1 - 4.1