Arizona Coyotes at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-10-22 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

OTT: 79.0%

ARI: 21.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.38

ARI: 2.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	22	20	2	90.9%	1.53	1	-0.47
ARI	K. Vejmelka	32	26	6	81.2%	2.97	2	-3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs ARI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-01	OTT 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	OTT
2023-12-19	ARI 4 - 3 OTT	ARI	ARI
2023-01-12	ARI 3 - 5 OTT	OTT	ARI
2022-10-22	OTT 6 - 2 ARI	OTT	OTT
2022-03-14	OTT 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	1	1.30
1	ARI	8	0	0.18
2	OTT	14	0	0.79
2	ARI	12	1	0.57
3	OTT	11	1	0.89
3	ARI	10	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 4.4 - 2.0