Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-10-22 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

CBJ: 27.1%

PIT: 72.9%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 1.91

PIT: 3.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 50%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	39	33	6	84.6%	3.41	2	-2.59
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	29	3	90.6%	2.49	0	-0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • CBJ at home vs PIT: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	CBJ
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	21	0	1.55
1	PIT	15	0	1.03
2	CBJ	6	0	0.55
2	PIT	19	1	1.08
3	CBJ	13	0	0.39
3	PIT	18	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 1.9 - 3.8