Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-10-24 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

VGK: 55.5%

TOR: 44.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.37

TOR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

L. Thompson

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	23	22	1	95.7%	2.26	0	1.26
TOR	I. Samsonov	33	30	3	90.9%	4.20	4	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	1	0.90
1	TOR	14	0	0.75
2	VGK	19	3	2.39
2	TOR	11	0	0.84
3	VGK	15	0	0.90
3	TOR	10	0	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9