Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-10-25 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 54.0%

COL: 46.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.64

COL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	47	43	4	91.5%	5.23	4	1.23
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	50	47	3	94.0%	4.91	3	1.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • NYR at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	NYR 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-11-20	COL 6 - 3 NYR	COL	COL
2025-01-26	NYR 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-14	COL 3 - 2 NYR	COL	COL
2024-03-28	COL 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.50
1	COL	23	1	1.83
2	NYR	22	0	1.18
2	COL	8	1	0.60
3	NYR	20	2	1.61
3	COL	15	0	1.03
4	NYR	6	0	0.51
4	COL	3	0	0.13
5	NYR	4	1	1.11
5	COL	4	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1