Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-10-27 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 68.1%

MIN: 31.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.45

MIN: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	40	36	4	90.0%	3.80	1	-0.20
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	29	27	2	93.1%	2.90	2	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs MIN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	OTT 1 - 4 MIN	MIN	OTT
2025-12-13	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	MIN
2025-02-01	OTT 6 - 0 MIN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-29	MIN 1 - 3 OTT	OTT	MIN
2024-04-02	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	1	0.95
1	MIN	20	0	1.06
2	OTT	9	1	0.79
2	MIN	24	0	1.18
3	OTT	17	0	1.17
3	MIN	13	1	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9