Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-10-27 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 54.0%

MTL: 46.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.93

MTL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 49%

BUF

E. Comrie

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	34	31	3	91.2%	2.24	0	-0.76
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	45	43	2	95.6%	3.74	1	1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • BUF at home vs MTL: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	18	1	1.50
1	MTL	15	0	0.55
2	BUF	19	0	1.03
2	MTL	15	0	0.69
3	BUF	21	0	1.21
3	MTL	16	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9