Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-10-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 0 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

DAL: 61.6%

WSH: 38.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.04

WSH: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	27	0	100.0%	2.96	1	2.96
WSH	D. Kuemper	27	25	2	92.6%	3.10	2	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	0	0.95
1	WSH	13	1	1.03
2	DAL	10	0	0.67
2	WSH	12	0	0.74
3	DAL	14	2	1.48
3	WSH	17	0	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 0 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 2.5