Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2022-10-29 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

SJS: 47.4%

TBL: 52.6%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.77

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

SJS

J. Reimer

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	26	22	4	84.6%	4.18	3	0.18
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	24	3	88.9%	2.67	1	-0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	1	0.72
1	TBL	16	2	1.91
2	SJS	11	0	0.80
2	TBL	18	0	0.95
3	SJS	15	0	1.14
3	TBL	10	1	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3