Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-10-29 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 7 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 59.1%

MTL: 40.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.43

MTL: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	25	18	7	72.0%	3.47	3	-3.53
MTL	J. Allen	30	26	4	86.7%	3.45	1	-0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • STL at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	STL 2 - 0 MTL	STL	MTL
2025-12-07	MTL 3 - 4 STL	STL	MTL
2025-03-25	STL 6 - 1 MTL	STL	STL
2024-10-26	MTL 5 - 2 STL	MTL	STL
2024-02-11	MTL 2 - 7 STL	STL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	15	0	1.25
1	MTL	9	1	0.83
2	STL	12	0	1.00
2	MTL	19	1	1.74
3	STL	17	1	1.20
3	MTL	11	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 7 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6