Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-10-29 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

NYI: 54.6%

COL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.29

COL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	37	33	4	89.2%	4.28	3	0.28
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	44	39	5	88.6%	3.45	1	-1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • NYI at home vs COL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	NYI
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.66
1	COL	14	0	0.75
2	NYI	21	0	1.08
2	COL	17	2	2.33
3	NYI	22	1	1.71
3	COL	16	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2