Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-10-29 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 53.4%

EDM: 46.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.25

EDM: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

J. Markstrom

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	26	23	3	88.5%	3.61	2	0.61
EDM	Stuart Skinner	42	40	2	95.2%	3.35	2	1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 39% • CGY at home vs EDM: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	CGY 4 - 3 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-27	CGY 3 - 2 EDM	CGY	EDM
2025-12-23	EDM 5 - 1 CGY	EDM	CGY
2025-10-08	EDM 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	EDM
2025-03-29	EDM 3 - 2 CGY	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.84
1	EDM	14	1	1.10
2	CGY	25	0	1.50
2	EDM	15	0	1.34
3	CGY	19	2	1.01
3	EDM	12	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2