Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-11-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 60.1%

BOS: 39.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.00

BOS: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	40	34	6	85.0%	3.84	2	-2.16
BOS	L. Ullmark	38	33	5	86.8%	5.13	2	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs BOS: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	PIT
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	0	1.10
1	BOS	16	1	1.71
2	PIT	19	2	1.98
2	BOS	16	0	1.07
3	PIT	15	0	1.25
3	BOS	13	1	0.79
4	PIT	6	0	0.81
4	BOS	3	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1