Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

TOR: 79.5%

PHI: 20.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.17

PHI: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 53%

TOR

I. Samsonov

PHI

F. Sandstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	25	23	2	92.0%	1.74	0	-0.26
PHI	F. Sandstrom	44	39	5	88.6%	4.78	4	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PHI: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	22	3	1.91
1	PHI	7	0	0.26
2	TOR	17	0	0.82
2	PHI	15	0	0.91
3	TOR	20	1	2.04
3	PHI	11	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 4.2 - 2.6