Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-11-02 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BUF: 58.6%

PIT: 41.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.17

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 56%

BUF

E. Comrie

PIT

C. DeSmith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	E. Comrie	21	18	3	85.7%	2.04	0	-0.96
PIT	C. DeSmith	33	27	6	81.8%	2.77	2	-3.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PIT: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.80
1	PIT	9	0	0.66
2	BUF	14	0	0.66
2	PIT	11	0	0.74
3	BUF	14	2	1.31
3	PIT	8	0	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0