Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-03 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 58.9%

CAR: 41.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.27

CAR: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	59	54	5	91.5%	6.52	2	1.52
CAR	Frederik Andersen	29	25	4	86.2%	4.06	3	0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs CAR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.76
1	CAR	21	0	1.21
2	TBL	16	2	1.36
2	CAR	24	0	1.32
3	TBL	8	0	0.46
3	CAR	20	0	1.27
4	TBL	3	0	0.23
4	CAR	6	0	0.64
5	TBL	6	1	1.25
5	CAR	6	2	2.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0